On the social and cognitive dimensions of wicked environmental problems characterized by conceptual and solution uncertainty

We develop a quantitative framework for understanding the class of wicked
problems that emerge at the intersections of “natural”, social, and
technological complex systems. Wicked problems reflect our incomplete
understanding of interdependent global systems and the systemic risk they
pose; such problems escape solutions because they are often ill-defined,
and thus misidentified and under-appreciated by communities of
problem-solvers. While there are well-documented benefits to tackling
boundary-crossing problems from various viewpoints, the integration of
diverse approaches can nevertheless contribute confusion around the
collective understanding of the core concepts and feasible solutions. We
explore this paradox by analyzing the development of both scholarly and
topical communities within three wicked problems: deforestation, invasive
species, and wildlife trade. We posit that saturation in the dynamics of
social and cognitive diversity growth is an indicator of reduced
uncertainty in the evolution of the comprehensive knowledge trajectory
emerging around each wicked problem. Informed by comprehensive
bibliometric data capturing both social and cognitive dimensions of each
problem domain, we thereby develop a framework that assesses the stability
of knowledge trajectory dynamics as an indicator of wickedness associated
with conceptual and solution uncertainty. As such, our results identify
wildlife trade as a wicked problem that may be difficult to address given
recent instability in its knowledge trajectory.