Calibration of forecast model variants of the semi-mechanistic model.

Calibration (p-value of the Anderson-Darling test of uniformity) of deterministic and stochastic predictive model variants starting either at the last data point or one week before, with varying (according to a Gaussian random walk) or fixed transmission rate either starting from the last value of the transmission rate or from an average over the last 2 or 3 weeks, at different forecast horizons up to 4 weeks. The p-values highlighted in bold reflect predictive models with no evidence of miscalibration. The second row corresponds to the highlighted model variant in Fig 2A.