Retrospective evaluation of NERC reserve-margin projections, 2015–2025: code and data

Code, derived data and results for a retrospective evaluation of the anticipated reserve margins projected in the North American Electric Reliability Corporation's long-term reliability assessments (2015–2025 editions). The analysis compares each projection with outcomes in NERC's Electricity Supply & Demand database, follows individual generators through the EIA-860M monthly inventory between each edition and its target summer, and splits each margin error exactly into basis, supply and load terms, with the supply term split further by what the inventory had recorded. The package contains the processing pipeline, all analysis scripts, the hand-built tables (assessment areas and units, forecast basis by edition, reference-margin bases, an audit of public retirement announcements with sources), small public inputs, the intermediate data and every result. reproduce.sh regenerates all results, figures and tables from the included data and compares them with the shipped results; the full rebuild from raw inputs is documented in the README, and the large public inputs not included are listed with their sources and checksums. Access is restricted to editors and reviewers during peer review. All rights reserved; see LICENSE.txt.