Establishing determinant relevance using CIBER: an introduction and tutorial

When developing behavior change interventions, it is important to target the most important determinants of behavior (i.e. psychological constructs that predict behavior). This is challenging for two reasons. First, determinant selection requires integrating multiple information sources: determinants' associations with either behavior or with determinant that mediate their effect on behavior (i.e. effect sizes), as well as how much room for improvement there is in the population (i.e. means and spread). Second, only information from samples is normally available, and point estimates obtained from samples vary from sample to sample, and therefore cannot be interpreted without information about how much they can be expected to vary over samples. In practice, determinant studies often present multivariate regression analyses, but this is problematic because by default, shared covariance is removed from the equation (literally), compromising operationalisations' validity and affecting effect sizes (i.e., the results of such analyses cannot be used as a first source of information regarding each determinant's association to behavior). In the present contribution, we will briefly explain these points in more detail, after which we will introduce a solution: confidence interval based estimation of relevance (CIBER). We will then present a brief tutorial as to how to generate CIBER plots and how to interpret them. This is a more detailed explanation and introduction: originally, CIBER was published in Crutzen, Peters & Noijen (2017).

在制定行为改变干预措施时，针对行为最重要的决定因素（即预测行为的心理结构）至关重要。这具有两大挑战。首先，决定因素的选择需要整合多个信息来源：决定因素与行为或调节其对行为影响的决定因素（即效应量）之间的关联，以及人群改善的空间（即均值和离散度）。其次，通常只有样本信息可用，而来自样本的点估计值因样本而异，因此没有关于它们在样本间可能变化的多少的信息，无法进行解释。在实际操作中，决定因素研究常常呈现多元回归分析，但这存在问题，因为默认情况下，方程中移除了共享协方差，这损害了操作化的有效性，并影响了效应量（即此类分析的结果不能作为每个决定因素与行为关联的第一手信息来源）。在本项贡献中，我们将更详细地解释这些观点，随后将介绍一种解决方案：基于置信区间的相关性估计（CIBER）。接下来，我们将简要介绍如何生成CIBER图以及如何解读它们。这是一项更详细的解释和介绍：最初，CIBER由Crutzen、Peters和Noijen（2017年）发表。