Age-period-cohort analysis on dementia mortality trend in China, 1990-2019

Objective To evaluate the long-term trend of dementia mortality in China from 1990 to 2019.Methods Mortality data on dementia were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Joinpoint regression model was utilized to analyze the mortality trends of dementia among Chinese population from 1990 to 2019. The online analysis tool of the age-period-cohort model, provided by the National Institutes of Health, was used to examine death data related to dementia among older adults.Results From 1990 to 2019, both the mortality rates and standardized mortality rates of dementia were higher in females than in males. Furthermore, the standardized mortality rates of dementia for both sexes exhibited W-shaped fluctuations. The estimated average annual percentage change (AAPC) in dementia mortality for male seniors was 0.32% (95% CI: 0.27%-0.37%), while for female seniors, it was 0.12% (95% CI: 0.06%-0.17%). The age effects demonstrated that the risk of death of dementia increased exponentially with age for both men and women starting from the age of 60. In each 5-year age group, from 60 to 64 years old to 90 to 94 years old, the relative risk (RR) of dementia-related death was 2.35 among male seniors and 2.36 among female seniors. The period effect indicated that the RR began to decrease since 2005. The cohort effect revealed an increase in mortality among later birth cohorts.Conclusion Since 1990, there has been a substantial disease burden among women and older populations in terms of dementia mortality. Moreover, the gender gap in dementia mortality is expected to narrow. Therefore, it is crucial to enhance the prevention and management of dementia from a comprehensive life cycle perspective.