Figure 3. The Five Externality Channels of the Nuclear Systems Externality Doctrine

This dataset supports Figure 3, “The Five Externality Channels of the Nuclear Systems Externality Doctrine.” The figure is a conceptual policy-architecture diagram developed within Nicolin R. Decker’s The Nuclear Systems Externality Doctrine: Monetary Collapse, Food Scarcity, Soot Propagation, Material-Security Risk, and the Destabilization of the Surviving Nuclear Order After Catastrophic State Removal (2026). It identifies five channels through which the catastrophic removal of a load-bearing nuclear state may transmit instability into the surviving nuclear order: monetary, food-scarcity, energy-fertilizer, atmospheric-soot, and alliance-deterrence externalities. The figure is not a quantitative weighting model and does not assign probability, severity, timing, sequence, or proportional share to any channel. It functions as a systems-mapping tool for showing how nuclear catastrophe may propagate beyond blast effects, casualty estimates, retaliation logic, or immediate escalation. Its purpose is to make a complex interagency problem legible by organizing systemic consequence into distinct but mutually reinforcing pathways. The central node is the “catastrophic removal of a load-bearing nuclear state.” From that node, five pathways radiate outward. The monetary pathway captures disruption to liquidity, reserves, collateral confidence, payments, and crisis finance. The food-scarcity pathway captures agricultural disruption, food availability, import capacity, price spikes, and insecurity. The energy-fertilizer pathway captures disruption to fuel, fertilizer, ammonia, transport, refining capacity, and agricultural inputs. The atmospheric-soot pathway captures black carbon injection, solar dimming, cooling, precipitation disruption, and crop-yield effects. The alliance-deterrence pathway captures deterrence strain, alliance disorder, command anxiety, credibility shock, and strategic misinterpretation. The figure should be read as a coupled-systems diagram. Monetary instability may impair food imports; energy disruption may reduce fertilizer availability; atmospheric soot may reduce crop yields; food scarcity may increase instability; alliance disorder may intensify deterrence anxiety; and strategic anxiety may affect markets and diplomacy. The diagram supports cross-domain analysis across national security, deterrence, financial stability, agriculture, energy resilience, atmospheric science, alliance management, emergency planning, and nonproliferation. This figure is designed for scholarly, policy, and institutional review. Its value lies in clarifying the systemic categories policymakers must consider when evaluating how nuclear catastrophe could affect solvency, food security, energy continuity, environmental stability, alliance cohesion, and strategic calm.