Evaluating niche changes during invasion with seasonal models in Capsella bursa‐pastoris

Premise Researchers often use ecological niche models to predict where
species might establish and persist under future or novel climate
conditions. However, these predictive methods assume species have stable
niches across time and space. Furthermore, ignoring the time of occurrence
data can obscure important information about species reproduction and
ultimately fitness. Here, we assess and compare ecological niche models
generated from full-year averages to seasonal models  Methods In
this study, we generate full-year and monthly ecological niche models for
Capsella bursa-pastoris in Europe and North America to see if we can
detect changes in the seasonal niche of the species after long-distance
dispersal.  Key Results We find full-year ecological niche models
have low transferability across continents and there are continental
differences in the climate conditions that influence the distribution of
C. bursa-pastoris. Monthly models have greater predictive accuracy than
full-year models in cooler seasons but no monthly models are able to
predict North American summer occurrences very well. Conclusions The
relative predictive ability of European monthly models compared to North
American monthly models suggests a change in the seasonal timing between
the native range to the non-native range. These results highlight the
utility of ecological niche models at finer temporal scales in predicting
species distributions and unmasking subtle patterns of evolution.