Explaining the rise in pedestrian fatalities: A safe systems approach [RR1]

Pedestrian fatalities increased to 5,987 in 2016, compared to 5,495 (2015) and 4,910 (2014), or an increase of 22% in the past 2 years. This is particularly alarming after so many years of decreasing pedestrian fatalities nationwide since the early 1970s. The project first convened a diverse group of cross-sector experts and examined available data sources to explore the underlying and complex factors influencing the national rise in pedestrian deaths. These efforts supported the development of dynamic, testable hypotheses to inform a future research agenda. This project was designed to also demonstrate an application of innovative systems science tools as a means for examining underlying drivers of complex problems and exploring effective leverage points for interventions. An initial set of systems mapping workshops with diverse stakeholders produced numerous theories involving about 40 key variables/themes related to the rise of pedestrian fatalities, many of which were further substantiated by additional data and literature scans. Additionally, hypotheses about system structures -- including balancing and reinforcing feedback loops -- thought to be accelerating or mitigating the fatality trends were uncovered.