Replication Data for: Not by Turnout Alone: Measuring the Sources of Electoral Change, 2012 to 2016

Changes in partisan outcomes between consecutive elections must come from changes in the composition of the electorate or changes in the vote choices of consistent voters. The extent to which electoral change is driven by composition versus conversion has critical implications for political systems including the policy mandates of election victories and politicians' strategies while campaigning and governing. Here, we analyze electoral change between the 2012 and 2016 U.S. presidential elections using administrative data. At the precinct level, the smallest geography at which vote counts are available, we merge election returns with individual-level turnout records from 37 million registered voters in six key states. We find that both factors were substantively meaningful drivers of electoral change. While the extent to which each factor aided the GOP in 2016 varied by state, we estimate that pro-GOP conversion among two-election voters was particularly important in states including Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania where the pro-GOP swings were largest. Our results suggest conversion remains a crucial component of electoral change.