Beliefs and Stock Market Fluctuations: New Evidence from the Past Seven Decades
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We construct a new long-run series of subjective expected equity returns from an independent equity analysis firm, spanning 1956-2024. These expected returns are strongly positively correlated with the earnings-price ratio, respond negatively to past returns, and predict future returns. These
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美国国家经济研究局创建时间：
2026-06-01
