Test of a mountain pine beetle winter mortality model

Winter mortality of mountain pine beetle larvae caused by unexpectedly low winter temperatures is an important determinant of mountain pine beetle population dynamics. We tested a widely used mountain pine beetle winter mortality model developed by researchers at the Canadian Forest Service and the United States Forest Service. lt predicts larval survival probabilities given temperature time series over the winter season. To validate the model, we compared its predictions to observed lower lethal temperature thresholds and cold-associated mortality. Model predictions were biologically reasonable--especially when the model was driven using observed under-bark temperatures. However, when the model was driven using predicted under-bark temperatures, its predictions were slightly biased due in part to inaccurate translation of air temperature data to temperatures under the bark where larvae develop. Relative mortality predicted across the study area in Banff National Park was not well predi..., At our detailed study site, we collected hourly time series of under-bark temperature in mountain pine beetle-infested trees on the north and south sides. In addition, we measured larval supercooling temperatures to quantify their level of cold hardiness, and assessed larval winter survival by pre and post-winter population surveys within each of our study trees. Observations were compared to model predictions when the winter mortality model was driven using under-bark temperatures.
At our spatially distributed sites, we assessed population success by quantifying the number of parents, and surviving progeny in the spring (after winter). Survival estimates based on these data were compared to model predictions of winter survival probability made using the mountain pine beetle winter mortality model as implemented in the publicly available BioSIM software., , # Test of a Mountain Pine Beetle Winter Mortality Model

[https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.31zcrjdvn](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.31zcrjdvn)

The data described below are analyzed and discussed in a manuscript to be submitted: \"An Evaluation of a Winter Mortality Model for Mountain Pine Beetles authored by Devin W. Goodsman, Jim D Weber, and Katherine P. Bleiker. The data and code included in the Dryad data submission called \"Test of a Mountain Pine Beetle Winter Mortality Model\" are described in detail below. The data are divided into five folders based on their type. The code is divided among five scripts. The code in each of these scripts work best if run line-by-line (interactively) so that the user can visualize the graphical outputs separately. The scripts also contain relevant statistical analyses and running them prints statistical summaries to the R console. All code was written by Devin W. Goodsman.

## Description of the data and file structure

### **Files that Pertain to Ban...