CESM1.0.5 model output from 'perfect model' decadal prediction experiment

This dataset is the output of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model version 1.0.5 (CESM1.0.5). It includes 46 groups of decadal simulations with each group sharing very similar initial states, usually being used to investigate decadal predictability. The output variable is monthly global near-surface temperature, with 288 grids on longitude and 192 grids on latitude.

The model experiment is called initialized 'perfect model' predictions. These predictions are initialized from every 1st of January in the 46 different years from 1961 to 2006 using the same component as 20 Century all forcing historical simulations. Five ensemble members are generated for these decadal simulations by creating small Gaussian perturbations of order 10-5K (i.e. smaller than possible to measure in real-world observations) to every grid point of the near-surface temperature field of the CESM historical reference run and these perfect-model decadal predictions are then integrated over 10 years. The dataset is decade-long coupled experiments of 46 starting years and 5 ensemble members for each starting year.

These simulations were run by Dr Yiling Liu of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Systems Sciences, as part of the Risks, mechanisms, and attribution of changes in Australian climate extremes research program.