Louis Jacobson's State Legislative Election Ratings (2002-2020)

These are election handicapper Louis Jacobson's ratings for state legislative elections for the election cycles from 2002 through 2020. Jacobson rated each state legislative chamber per election year with one of the following labels depending on its perceived electoral competitiveness in that cycle (the 1-7 numeric scores were added by Klarner for ease of data analysis): Safe Republican (1), Likely Republican (2), Lean Republican (3), Toss-up (4), Lean Democratic (5), Likely Democratic (6), Safe Democratic (7). Jacobson determined the competitiveness of each legislative chamber after conducting interviews with national and state level sources, including academics, pollsters, and partisans. The sources remained anonymous in order to speak freely. Jacobson often rated chambers multiple times in one cycle, with the new ratings noting shifts in competitiveness within a cycle. The spreadsheet lists the date for each rating so readers can see if a chamber's perceived competitiveness shifted over the course of an election cycle. These ratings were published by the following outlets: The Cook Political Report (2002; 2020), The Rothenberg Political Report (now called Inside Elections) (2004; 2006), Stateline.org (2008), Governing (2010-2018).