Evaluating rainfall forecasting capability of multi-source weather (MSWX) product over rainfall regimes of Ethiopia

This study evaluated rainfall forecasting capability of Multi-Source Weather (MSWX) over rainfall regimes of Ethiopia. The evaluation was made for the period 2015–2019 at daily and ten-day temporal scales using categorical and continuous metrics and also graphical techniques. Moreover, critical rating index (CRI) was used to determine the overall performance ranking of MSWX. The result showed that MSWX ensemble member 2 and 3 have better capture daily rainfall occurrence over most rainfall regimes of Ethiopia. Dominantly, ensemble members overestimate daily and ten day rainfall total, with high overestimation of ten day rainfall total by 120.2% over rainfall regime 11. MSWX ensemble members have different performance to capture rainfall total. Overall, MSWX ensemble members have their own role to detect rainfall occurrence and total over rainfall regimes of Ethiopia at both temporal scales. The finding of this study will play a noteworthy role to increase the forecast accuracy of Ethiopia.