Incorporation of geological uncertainty in pit optimization with geostatistics simulation

Abstract Risk mapping processes in mine planning and ore recovery are constantly used in the mining industry to increase decision making certainty based on the available information. However, it is not possible to predict the risk behavior in all of the project's boundary conditions and small variations in some of these conditions can cause a great impact on its financial return. Among the countless uncertainties existing in a mining project (operational, costs, market change), many authors define the geological uncertainty as the most critical one, capable of influencing the success of the project. Measurement and evaluation of the geological uncertainty of a mine planning project is crucial because the calculated risk can be translated into a financial risk of the project. This article presents a possible way to consider the geological uncertainty in the pit optimization step by using sequential Gaussian simulation. The results obtained from the case study on a copper deposit results in a simple procedure with significant increase in reliability for the project.