Agricultural commodities: December quarter 2015

Overview \r\n The December edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES' latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2015-16, and updates the outlook ABARES released in September 2015. \r\n\r\n In addition to commodity forecasts, this publication includes two boxes: \r\n• seasonal conditions in Australia \r\n• farm cash income of broadacre farms \r\n and one article: • key agricultural outcomes of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement. \r\n\r\nFarmer/stakeholder implications \r\n The Agricultural commodities report provides high quality and timely information that supports higher farm gate returns through informed decision making by primary producers. \r\n\r\nKey Issues \r\n Commodity forecasts \r\n• The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 8 per cent in 2015-16 to around $57.6 billion, following an estimated increase of 4 per cent to $53.5 billion in 2014-15. At this forecast level, the gross value of farm production in 2015-16 would be around 17 per cent higher than the average of $49.4 billion over the five years to 2014-15 in nominal terms. \r\n• The gross value of livestock production is forecast to increase by around 13 per cent in 2015-16 to $30.0 billion following an estimated increase of 16 per cent in 2014-15. The forecast increase in 2015-16 mainly reflects expected increases in the farmgate prices for beef cattle, lamb, sheep and wool. \r\n• The forecast increases in farmgate prices are expected to more than offset a forecast decline of 5 per cent in the volume index of livestock production in 2015-16. This mainly reflects an assumption of more favourable seasonal conditions in the latter half of 2015-16 leading to reduced slaughter as a result of herd and flock rebuilding. \r\n• The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2015-16 to $27.6 billion alongside an expected increase of 2 per cent in the volume index of crop production. This mainly reflects increases in horticultural production offsetting the falling world prices of grains and oilseeds. \r\n• Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to be around $44.0 billion in 2015-16, following a rise of 6 per cent to an estimated $43.6 billion in 2014-15. At this level, export earnings from farm commodities in 2015-16 would be around 15 per cent higher than the average of $38.2 billion over the five years to 2014-15 in nominal terms. \r\n• Agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2015-16 include: wheat (up 3 per cent to $5.7 billion), wool (9 per cent to $3.5 billion), wine (3 per cent to $2.1 billion), lamb (1 per cent to $1.7 billion), sugar (8 per cent to $1.4 billion), live feeder/slaughter cattle (16 per cent to $1.3 billion) and chickpeas (56 per cent to $0.6 billion). \r\n• These forecast increases are expected to be largely offset by forecast falls in export earnings from beef and veal (down 3 per cent to $8.6 billion), dairy (6 per cent to $2.3 billion), coarse grains (14 per cent to $2.3 billion), canola (8 per cent to $1.2 billion), cotton (21 per cent to $1.2 billion) and mutton (2 per cent to $0.8 billion). \r\n• Export earnings from fisheries products are forecast to increase by 17 per cent to around $1.7 billion in 2015-16, after increasing by an estimated 10 per cent to $1.4 billion in 2014-15. \r\n• The index of unit export returns for Australian farm exports is forecast to rise by 7 per cent in 2015-16, following an estimated rise of 6 per cent in 2014-15. The forecast increase in 2015-16 mainly reflects the effect of the assumed lower value of the Australian dollar, especially against the US dollar. \r\n• In Australian dollar terms, export prices of beef and veal, wool, wine, lamb, live feeder/slaughter cattle, rock lobster, mutton and chickpeas are forecast to increase in 2015-16. In contrast, export prices of wheat, barley, sugar and dairy products are forecast to decline. \r\n\r\n Economic assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts \r\n• World economic growth is assumed to be 3.1 per cent in 2015 and 3.4 per cent in 2016. \r\n• Economic growth in Australia is assumed to average 2.5 per cent in 2015-16, compared with 2.2 per cent in 2014-15. \r\n• The Australian dollar is assumed to average around US72 cents in 2015-16, 14 per cent lower than the average of US84 cents in 2014-15. \r\n