Model instances for land use and climate scenarios of Ecological and Economic Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change on Coastal Food Webs and Fisheries project

This resource contains SWAT-MODFLOW model instances for various land use and climate scenarios for the Suwannee River in the Southeastern United States. These model instances were used to simulate alternative climate and land-use/management scenarios to evaluate how climate and watershed management actions affect the flow of water and nutrients to the coast, and subsequent effects on fisheries, aquaculture, tourism and the regional economy. The land use and climate scenarios were co-developed with stakeholders in the Community Advisory Committee and Scientific Advisory Committee of the Ecological and Economic Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change on Coastal Food Webs and Fisheries project (https://waterinstitute.ufl.edu/research/featured-projects/ecological-and-economic-impacts-of-land-use-and-climate-change-on-coastal-food-webs-and-fisheries/) . This project was funded by the National Academies of Sciences Engineering and Medicine Gulf Research Program (Grant No. 200011709) . Six land-use/management maps were developed. Each of these six land-use maps was subjected to five different climate forcings, resulting in a total of 30 different scenarios.

The co-developed land-use/management maps are as follows:

1) Current Condition
The base model. This model's land uses and management practices are representative of regional production systems. The details of this model and its development can be found in, Reaver, N. G. F., R. De Rooij, D. Lee, D. Kaplan, W. Graham, M. Allen (2025). Ecological and Economic Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change on Coastal Food Webs and Fisheries project SWAT-MODFLOW model of the Suwannee River, HydroShare, http://www.hydroshare.org/resource/8012461c87ff44369ae2f1915499f107.

2) Agricultural Expansion
All current forest land suitable for agriculture (i.e., those with soil group A) switches to row crops. In Florida, row crops are corn-peanut and corn-carrot-peanut rotations, while in Georgia, row crops are cotton-cotton-peanut and cotton-corn-peanut rotations.

3) Restoration Forestry
All agriculture (row crop, pasture, hay) and production forestry lands are converted to low-density longleaf pine savanna.

4) Southeast Conservation Blueprint
All non-irrigated agricultural land (hay, pasture and production forest) in priority areas set by Southeast Conservation Blueprint (https://secassoutheast.org/blueprint.html) is converted to low-density longleaf pine savanna.

5) Urban Expansion 2070
Adopted increased urban area from land use projection and population change from the population projection of the EPA ICLUS SSP2 of 2070.

6) Urban Expansion 2100
Adopted increased urban area from land use projection and population change from the population projection of the EPA ICLUS SSP2 of 2100.

The climate forcings implemented are as follows:

1) North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS), "Current Conditions"
Historical climate data with an annual average precipitation of 1294 mm/yr.

2) bcc-csm1-1m , "Hot and Dry"
Downscaled regional climate model with an annual average precipitation of 1263 mm/yr. This climate model assumes the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5), a scenario where radiative forcing stabilizes at 4.5 Watts per square meter (W/m²) by the year 2100.

3) MRI-CGCM3, "Hot and Wet"
Downscaled regional climate model with an annual average precipitation of 1549 mm/yr. This climate model assumes IPCC RCP4.5.

4) MIROC-ESM-CHEM, "Hotter and Drier"
Downscaled regional climate model with an annual average precipitation of 1055 mm/yr. This climate model assumes IPCC Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), a scenario where radiative forcing stabilizes at 8.5 W/m² by the year 2100.

5) CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, "Hotter and Wetter"
Downscaled regional climate model with an annual average precipitation of 1562 mm/yr. This climate model assumes IPCC RCP8.5.

The details of these 30 scenarios can be found in the document "Model_Development_SR.pdf" within the "contents" folder of this resource.