The Dynamics of China’s Energy Economy

SummaryThe growth of its economy means that the People's Republic of China ranks at the top of many energy related league tables. It produces and consumes roughly 50% of the world's annual coal demand, while also being the largest importer of coal (accounting for 16% of total coal imports). China is the world's largest oil importer, yet is still the world's fifth largest oil producer. Also, it has the world's most ambitious nuclear program, the world's largest renewable energy industry and one of the fastest growing demands for natural gas. China's appetite for energy is huge and is set to grow substantially over at least the next decade. There appear to be two main challenges facing research into China's energy economy: - Necessary specialism can narrow scope and undermine opportunities for cross disciplinary synergy; and - While data are the foundation stones of any approach, understanding the limitations of Chinese data is one thing, overcoming these limitations another. Three non-traditional approaches that may deliver greater insight comprise: - Mixed Complementarity Problem (MCP) formulations. MCPs can provide a bottom-up modeling approach that complements alternative traditional, top-down Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models, deepening understanding of what is happening in China's complex energy economy and how it could respond to future policies; - Bargaining models, which can allow practitioners to set out competing policy priorities and draw conclusions on plausible policy outcomes that can help bound the research space; and - Theories of institutions that allow more critical examination of the policy making environment in China, thus improving our understanding of plausible future responses. However one looks at China’s energy and environmental policies, decisions made in Beijing will have ramifications for both its domestic energy economy and for global markets. Understanding the potential for such decisions, whether they appear rational to an external observer or not, is critical for policy makers globally in preparing their own energy economies for the consequences of China’s continued economic growth and burgeoning energy demand.

摘要：中国经济之蓬勃发展，使得中华人民共和国在众多能源相关排行榜上位居前列。我国生产和消费的煤炭需求量约占全球年需求量的一半，同时我国也是最大的煤炭进口国，占全球煤炭进口总量的16%。中国是全球最大的石油进口国，尽管如此，仍位居全球第五大石油生产国。此外，我国拥有全球最雄心勃勃的核能计划、全球最大的可再生能源产业，以及天然气需求增长最快的国家之一。我国对能源的渴求巨大，预计在未来至少十年内将显著增长。针对中国能源经济的研究面临两大主要挑战：一是必要的专业化可能会缩小研究范围，削弱跨学科协同的机会；二是尽管数据是任何研究方法的基础，但理解中国数据的局限性是一回事，克服这些局限性则是另一回事。三种非传统的研究方法可能提供更深入的见解，包括：混合互补问题（MCP）的表述。MCPs可以通过自下而上的建模方法，补充传统的自上而下的可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型，深化对中国复杂能源经济现状及其对未来政策的应对策略的理解；谈判模型，允许从业者提出相互竞争的政策优先级，并对可能的政策结果做出结论，有助于界定研究范围；以及机构理论，允许对中国政策制定环境的批判性考察，从而提高我们对可能未来反应的理解。无论从何种角度审视中国的能源和环境政策，北京所做的决策都将对其国内能源经济和全球市场产生深远影响。理解这些决策的潜在影响，无论外部观察者是否认为其合理，对于全球政策制定者来说，在为自身能源经济应对中国持续的经济增长和日益增长的能源需求做准备时至关重要。