Relative endorsements of development finance instruments in GDG- and ODI-policy documents

To assess the relative approval of the three approaches identified by our trilemma, we conducted a content analysis of policy documents published by the two leading independent think tanks in global development finance: the US-based CDG and the UK-based ODI. We categorised the Type of financing: (1) external, (2) mixed, (3) domestic. Subdivided into: (1) private capital mobilization, subdivided into (i) project derisking, (ii) portfolio derisking, and (iii) unspecified; (2) leveraging or strenghtening MDBs, subdivided into (2i) CAF reforms, (2ii) WBG capital increase, and (2iii) IDA replenishment; and (3) domestic resource mobilization, subdivided into (3i) figting illicit capital flight, (3ii) sovereign debt restructuring, and (3iii) other.

The G20 independent expert groups commissioned to write key reports on MDB reforms over the last decade – Making the Global Financial System Work for All (G20 Eminent Persons Group on Global Financial Governance, 2018), Boosting MDBs’ Investing Capacity: An Independent Review of MDBs’ Capital Adequacy Frameworks (G20 CAF Review Expert Panel, 2022), Strengthening the MDBs: The Triple Agenda (G20 Independent Expert Panel, 2023 – included affiliates of the GCD and/or ODI.

To gauge the relative focus of the two think tanks on different approaches in the MFD agenda, we categorized 207 policy documents published from 2015 to 2024 with a focus on the MFD agenda according to whether they contained explicit endorsement of private (project or portfolio) derisking and/or leveraging/strengthening of MDBs. There has been some rise in endorsements of portfolio derisking proposals since 2020. Nevertheless, endorsement of such proposals have been far fewer than endorsements of proposals related to leveraging and/or strengthening the traditional business model of the MDBs.

The thinktank publications have been read systematically, with the use of Qualtrics, with exact mentions and text excerpts written down. These forms can be made available upon request. Qualtrics survey: https://ugent.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_6Vx84GPlZyQ2ciG