Advancing and retreating fronts in a changing climate: a percolation model of range shifts

Climate change causes considerable shifts in the geographic distribution of species worldwide. Most data on range movements, however, derive from relatively short periods, within which it is difficult to distinguish directional shifts from random fluctuations. For detecting a shift, it is indispensable to delineate the range precisely. We propose a new method for delineation based on percolation theory. We suggest marking the boundary between the connected and fragmented occurrence of the species (the hull). We demonstrate the advantages of this connectivity-based method on simulated examples in which a metapopulation is advancing vs. retreating along an environmental gradient with different velocities. The simulations show that the hull is a fractal and has the same dimension (7/4) even when the front is advancing or retreating relatively fast, compared to the generation time. It is particularly robust in the retreating (trailing) edge. Accordingly, we propose marking the range edge at..., The data were produced by computer simulations, written in Object Pascal, for the study of shifting ranges of species (see a detailed description in the paper).
The data are density values of the hull edge as a function of the spreading rate (lambda) and of the velocity of environmental change (v).
The first column shows the lambda values, while the top row contains the v values. Each density value is an average obtained from 100 independent repetitions., No special tool is required. The file is a text file. The columns are tab-delimited.