A Bayesian Network approach for conducting an Uncertainty Analysis of Energy Systems Models

This folder contains three files, each of which contains a Bayesian Network that can be opened and explored using SAMIAM. SAMIAM is a free program that is available to download from http://reasoning.cs.ucla.edu/samiam *************************************************************** Each file is described in turn: TotalCost_sensitivity.net - this is the Bayesian network shown in Figures 4a and 4b of the main paper. Only in the ESME model inputs and one result (total system cost) are shown. TotalCost_extended_BN.net - this is the Bayesian network shown in Figure 5. Now, the total system cost results are joined with the elicited Bayesian network. TechnologyCapacity.net - this is the network shown in Figure 6. The distributions for a range of technologies are shown and can be queried using the SAMIAM software.