Inter-Halving Bitcoin Price CAGR (Preprint Article).pdf

The halving schedule cuts the block subsidy by 50% roughly every four years, creating recurring shocks to miners’ dollar‑denominated income and to the network’s security budget. We introduce a simple, auditable benchmark for a practical question: how fast must market price grow between halvings to keep miners’ USD revenue from eroding? The benchmark ties two observable forces—transaction fees as a share of rewards and growth in network hash rate—to two checks: (i) the one‑off price adjustment at the halving that holds network USD revenue per block constant, and (ii) the inter‑halving compound growth needed to hold USD revenue per unit of hash (hashprice) constant. Validating the benchmark over the 2012–2016, 2016–2020, and 2020–2024 cycles, we find that persistent shortfalls versus the requirement align with margin compression and industry consolidation. Looking ahead, a 2024–2028 case with modest fees and about 10% annual hash rate growth implies a price path on the order of 30% per year to maintain constant USD hashprice; under slower hash rate growth and higher long‑run fees, as may prevail in 2028–2032, the requirement eases toward roughly 23–24% per year. We note limitations and show how to reproduce all results from public data using the formulas provided in this article.