Species-specific responses to multiple climatic variables predict diverging locations of future climate change refugia

This dataset supports analyses of species-specific habitat suitability responses to projected climate change across 81 plant species in California. It includes pixel-level habitat suitability estimates from median consensus species distribution models under two general circulation models (CNRM-CM5 and HadGEM2-ES), alongside geographic features (latitude, distance to coast, elevation, and topographic heterogeneity) and projected changes in five hydroclimatic variables derived from the Basin Characterization Model (270 m resolution). Also included are species-level Spearman correlation values relating change in habitat suitability to each geographic and hydroclimatic variable. Data are provided as compressed CSV files alongside R scripts used for data preparation, processing, analysis, and figure generation. This dataset could and may be reused to explore climate-driven range shifts, refugia identification, and plant species responses to hydroclimatic change in Mediterranean-type ecosyste..., This Dryad repository includes the data and R code used to produce the analyses and figures presented in the associated manuscript. Species distribution models were calibrated using baseline climate data (1981-2010) and species occurrence records for 81 plant species in California, then projected under two general circulation models (CNRM-CM5 and HadGEM2-ES) representing different magnitudes of temperature and precipitation change. Hydroclimatic variables were derived from the Basin Characterization Model (BCM) at 270 m resolution. Pixel-level habitat suitability estimates were related to geographic features and projected hydroclimatic change using Spearman correlations and linear regression, implemented in R v.4.4.0 using the packages flexsdm, terra, tidyverse, broom, and dotwhisker. Full methodological details are provided in the associated manuscript. , , # Data from: Species-specific responses to multiple climatic variables predict diverging locations of future climate change refugia ## Description of the data and file structure The data include 1) pixel level data for the 81 study species of current and future habitat suitability estimated by median consensus species distribution models, geographic features, and changes in hydroclimatic variables estimated by the Basin Characterization Model (270 m) and 2) the resulting spearman correlation values calculated between the change in habitat suitability and each of the geographic features and change in hydroclimatic variables. Code used to complete the correlation and linear regression analysis and create figures is included. ### Files and variables #### File: SI_species_information_clean.csv **Description:**Â Species-level metadata for the 81 study species including growth form, primary habitat/vegetation community, SDM model performance metrics (AUC and TSS), spatial partitioning par..., ,