Making Sense of Uncertainty HEFS Project

Focus group transcripts and survey data related to the Making Sense of Uncertainty HEFS Project. This project was funded by a $320,540 grant from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to advance its social science research work around flood risk and flood forecasts. The grant supported a two-year mixed-methods social science research study of three forecast products to propose improvements to the display and communication of uncertainty and probabilistic information in hydrologic forecasts. The project built on the findings from prior studies about the needs users have for hydrologic forecast information. The study engaged residents, emergency managers and water resource managers in California, Colorado and New York to learn how they use, understand and make decisions based upon flood forecast products, and specifically, how emerging probabilistic forecast capacity can be most useful. The products studied include the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service and specifically hydrographs produced through AHPS and at regional offices; emergency briefings that notify of impending flood events; and centrally, probabilistic forecasts issued through the emerging Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System. NNC’s research team, including Dr. Burrell Montz of East Carolina University, has compiled a series of recommendations to NOAA about the best ways to use and improve upon these products to communicate flood risk.