Enhanced Dam Failure Loss Estimation Method Using Popula-tion Heat Map and Land Use Data in Water Resources Sector

<b>Abstract: </b>Dams of reservoir, as crucial infrastructure, pose a significant risk to downstream populations and assets in the event of a dam failure. Conducting simulation analyses of dam failure processes and estimating life loss is essential for constructing risk management systems and formulating emergency refuge plans for dams. Traditional statistical survey methods suffer from shortcomings such as inadequate authenticity, delayed data sharing, and limited application value. This paper proposes a method for estimating dam failure life loss based on population thermal maps and land use data. By employing population thermal maps to estimate the number of at-risk populations and enhancing traditional static statistical population estimation methods, we address real-time data challenges. Through the introduction of temporal variables to distinguish between new and historical at-risk populations, data authenticity and accuracy are improved. Using the BREACH model and two-dimensional hydrodynamic models, we simulate the dam failure process and flood flow rates as well as the inundation area of the Shiyan Reservoir in Shenzhen. Subsequently, the dam failure life loss estimation method based on population thermal maps and land use data is applied to estimate life loss under different warning time parameters. We analyze the factors affecting life loss in flood risk areas and propose suggestions for severity factors and parameter selection. The results demonstrate the model's applicability in addressing challenges related to population estimation authenticity and accuracy through real-time, accurate, and intuitive data analysis. It provides robust support for disaster warning and emergency response, enhances decision-making efficiency and accuracy, and plays a crucial role in safeguarding people's lives and property. The findings of this study can serve as a theoretical reference for predicting dam failure risk population disasters, emergency rescue operations, and population relocation plans in the future.