Data from: Climate change-driven shifts in C3 and C4 grass distributions and leaf traits could lead to changes in community-level flammability

Climate change poses challenges to the grasslands of the North American
Great Plains Region (GPR), where shifts in species distributions and fire
dynamics are expected. The differential responses of C4 and C3 grass
species to future climate conditions, particularly in habitat suitability
and flammability, are critical for understanding ecosystem changes. This
study uses species distribution models to predict shifts in habitat
suitability for 37 species under future climate scenarios and assesses
flammability traits in a Free-Air CO2 Enrichment study, focusing on
species' physiological responses to elevated CO2, warming, and
drought. Our models predict that C4 species will retain higher habitat
suitability, while C3 species will decline. Leaf-level flammability
analysis shows that species with higher water-use efficiency under
elevated CO2 will exhibit reduced flammability, potentially decreasing the
predicted rate of spread (ROS) when such species dominate. In contrast,
species with higher growth rates but lower water-use efficiency may
experience increased flammability. Species-specific responses varied
within functional types. Anticipated shifts in species distributions
suggest C4 species will become more dominant, potentially altering
competitive dynamics and reducing C3 diversity. Changes in flammability
under future conditions are expected to influence fire regimes, with a
predicted decrease in mean community ROS due to the dominance of less
flammable C4 species. These findings highlight the need for adaptive fire
management and conservation strategies to maintain biodiversity and
ecosystem function in the GPR under climate change.