Analysis of the Future Supply and Demand Pattern of Global Rare Earth Resources

Rare earth elements, serving as crucial raw materials for modern high-tech industries, are extensively utilized in fields such as new energy vehicles and wind power generation. As global demand for clean energy continues to grow, the demand for rare earth resources also increases, urging countries to boost their investments in rare earth mining and research and development. This trend has drawn widespread attention to the supply pattern of rare earths, particularly under the influence of multiple factors such as geopolitics, environmental protection, and technological innovation. Ensuring a stable supply of rare earth resources has become a significant part of strategic considerations for various countries. This study employs an agentbased modeling approach to develop a global rare earth resource development model, aiming to predict the global rare earth mineral supply potential over the next 20 years. This findings are intended to provide a scientific basis for the development and utilization of rare earth resources an to support their sustainable management. This study reaches the following conclusions: Firstly, the global supply of rare earths is expected to grow rapidly in the future, reaching between 600,000 tons to 1 million tons by 2040, with China′s supply proportion decreasing annually. Secondly, the distribution of rare earth minerals will become diversified, with the supply share of regions such as China, the United States, Vietnam, Australia, and South America gradually increasing. Thirdly, the increase in the supply of medium and heavy rare earths will become a pivotal aspect of future mineral development. Greenland and South America possess significant development potential and are poised to emerge as new suppliers of medium and heavy rare earths. Finally, the diversification of rare earth supply is likely to introduce challenges related to price volatility. It is recommended that countries strengthen resource investigation and research, promote technological innovation, and maintain the stability of rare earth supply.