<b>ASSESSING VULNERABILITY OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN LANDBIRDS TO CLIMATE AND LAND USE CHANGE</b>

ABSTRACT:<br><br>Biodiversity is declining at an alarming rate due to anthropogenic changes in both climate and land use, among other factors. Few studies have analyzed the risk of both land use change and climate change together across a wide taxonomic group and geographic area. We use publicly available eBird data and align it with projections of climate and land use change over the course of the next century in an effort to quantify the vulnerability of 218 species of landbirds in the Eastern United States. We find considerable variation across species in their risk to changes in both climate and land use, with substantially higher vulnerability projected under the most pessimistic emissions scenario. Northern species and species occupying forest and grassland habitats face the highest risks from climate change, while species associated with marshes and urban habitat face higher risks of land use change. Spatial patterns of community-wide vulnerability to climate change and to land use change were closely linked and likely driven by biodiversity despite differences in affected species, highlighting the importance of targeting biodiversity hotspots for protection rather than focusing solely on the areas which are going to be affected the most severely by either climate change or land conversion.