Accounting for uncertainty in marine ecosystem service predictions for spatial prioritisation

Spatial assessments of Ecosystem Services (ES) are increasingly used in environmental management and spatial planning, but rarely provide information on the accuracy of predictions. Uncertainty estimates are essential to allow for confidence in the quality and credibility of ES assessments to enable informed decision-making. In marine environments, the need for uncertainty assessments for ES is unparalleled as they are data scarce, poorly (spatially) defined, with complex interconnectivity of seascapes. This study illustrates the uncertainty associated with a principle-based method for ES modelling by accounting for model variability, data coverage, and uncertainty in thresholds and parameters. A sensitivity analysis was applied on ES models for marine bivalves (Austrovenus stutchburyi and Paphies australis) and their contribution to Food provision, Water quality regulation, Nitrogen removal, and Sediment stabilisation. ES estimates from the sensitivity analysis were compared against ba..., , Software requirements: R and/or ArcGIS/QGIS, # Data from: Accounting for uncertainty in marine ecosystem service predictions for spatial prioritisation

Spatial assessments of Ecosystem Services (ES) are increasingly used in environmental management and spatial planning, but rarely provide information on the accuracy of predictions. Uncertainty estimates are essential to allow for confidence in the quality and credibility of ES assessments to enable informed decision-making. In marine environments, the need for uncertainty assessments for ES is unparalleled as they are data scarce, poorly (spatially) defined, with complex interconnectivity of seascapes. This study illustrates the uncertainty associated with a principle-based method for ES modelling by accounting for model variability, data coverage, and uncertainty in thresholds and parameters. A sensitivity analysis was applied on ES models for marine bivalves (Austrovenus stutchburyi and Paphies australis) and their contribution to Food provision, Water quality regulation, Nit...