Research Guided Recommendations for Communicating Uncertainty and Probabilities

Probabilistic forecast information is rapidly proliferating, injecting a new wave of uncertainty into the forecast and warning process. Most scientists agree that this is a positive development, but incorporating probability information into risk communication can be challenging, as probabilities are notoriously difficult to communicate effectively to lay audiences. What does the research literature say about the best way to include probability information in risk communication? What is the evidence base for different communication practices? This project endeavors to address these questions by conducting a “living systematic review” of relevant research from past studies and new studies as they become available. 2020 Grant no. NA16OAR4320115 NWS (National Weather Service) Submitted Other 1931