Marginal (log) likelihood estimates for the fit of different phylogeographic diffusion predictors in Algeria and Morocco.

*diffusion rates among each pair of locations were fixed to the product of the populations sizes of the locations involved.
**In the gravity model, rates were fixed to the product of the populations sizes divided by the great circle distance between the locations involved. The best fitting model and associated marginal log likelihoods are listed in bold. Marginal log likelihoods for analyses in which rates were estimated from the data (−276.5 and −301.3 for Algeria and Morocco, respectively) indicate that the best fitting models with fixed rate parameters compete with far more flexible, but very parameter-rich models.