Regional burden, trends, and future projections of chronic kidney disease due to type 2 diabetes mellitus in South Asia: insights from the global burden of disease study (1990–2021) and ARIMA forecasting

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) due to Type 2Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) is an increasing health burden in South Asia. Thisstudy evaluates the burden, trends, and future projections of CKD from1990–2021 using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data and ARIMA modeling. We analyzed age-standardized rates (ASR) forprevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALYs of CKD due to T2DM in South Asia(India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal). Join point regression and ARIMAmodels were applied for trend analysis and projections. From 1990 to 2021, prevalence decreasedslightly (e.g. India: 5.4% to 5.2%), while mortality increased (e.g.Pakistan: 33.7 to 42.1 per 100,000). Incidence increased across all countries,with Nepal (1.3% increase) and Bhutan (1.7% increase) showing the highestgrowth. Projections indicate a continued rise in CKD burden, especially inNepal and India. CKD due to T2DM is increasing, emphasizing theneed for targeted interventions.