Data from: Novel and disappearing climates in the global surface ocean from 1800 to 2100

Marine ecosystems are experiencing unprecedented warming and acidification
caused by anthropogenic carbon dioxide. For the global sea surface, we
quantified the degree that present climates are disappearing and novel
climates (without recent analogs) are emerging, spanning from 1800 through
different emission scenarios to 2100. We quantified the sea surface
environment based on model estimates of carbonate chemistry and
temperature. Between 1800 and 2000, no gridpoints on the ocean surface
were estimated to have experienced an extreme degree of global
disappearance or novelty. In other words, the majority of environmental
shifts since 1800 were not novel, which is consistent with evidence that
marine species have been able to track shifting environments via
dispersal. However, between 2000 and 2100 under Representative
Concentrations Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 projections, 10–82% of the
surface ocean is estimated to experience an extreme degree of global
novelty. Additionally, 35–95% of the surface ocean is estimated to
experience an extreme degree of global disappearance. These upward
estimates of climate novelty and disappearance are larger than those
predicted for terrestrial systems. Without mitigation, many species will
face rapidly disappearing or novel climates that cannot be outpaced by
dispersal and may require evolutionary adaptation to keep pace.