Replication Data for: Conflict Management Trajectories: Theory and Evidence

When multiple attempts to manage a given conflict occur, are these
attempts interdependent—and if so, how? Policymakers and practitioners
regularly report that such interdependence exists; and yet, explicit
theorizing about it remains underdeveloped. The need for theorizing
motivates the current study. Using the concept of a conflict management
trajectory as a foundation, I develop four models that potentially link
successive conflict management efforts together: a cost model, a limited
cost model, a learning model, and a baseline model. I then test these
models' predictions empirically with data on diplomatic interventions
during the period 1946-2000 (i.e., verbal pleas, mediation, arbitration,
adjudication, humanitarian and other administrative tasks, and peace
operations). The analysis shows that the limited cost model best explains
interdependence among conflict management attempts. In that model,
states balance their desire to do something with their incentive to
minimize costs. This creates an intervention ‘threshold’ beyond which
third parties less frequently travel—particularly if that threshold has not
yet been crossed in a given dispute. Third-party intervention
overwhelmingly resides on the less costly end of the spectrum,
exceeding the costs associated with mediation rarely. If a third party
crosses that threshold, the probability of further intervention on the
high-cost side of the threshold rises, but third parties still prefer to
return to low-cost conflict management strategies. It seems, therefore,
that rational considerations dominate, as third parties work to achieve
the benefits of peace for the lowest possible price.