Gas Outlook 2022 – 2050 Gas Consumption Scenario

** Gas consumption scenarios for 2050 (Prospects Gas 2022 edition)**

****

This dataset presents the reference scenario for gas consumption in France by 2050 presented in the document “Perspectives Gaz 2022”. This document is the result of a collaboration between GRDF, GRTgaz, Teréga and SPEGNN, in accordance with the recommendations of the Energy Code. Article L. 141-10 of the Energy Code confers on transmission and distribution system operators the responsibility to draw up, on an annual basis, multiannual forecasts of gas demand and renewable gas production in France.

This 2022 edition presents an update of the scenario “TERRITORIES” presented in the 2021 edition, which incorporates a double constraint:

* have reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 50 % by 2030;

* achieve the objective of carbon neutrality by 2050, with a limited reliance on possible imports of renewable gases and a minor use of CO2 sequestration pathways.

In the context of the 2021 Gas Outlook exercise, a “TERRITORY” scenario was developed using a bottom-up (or “bottom-up”) approach of each consumer sector. It was based on the use and exploitation of data from numerous external studies (INSEE, SDES, CEREN, ADEME, RTE, AFG, DGEC, ENTSOG, etc.) and aimed at translating the territorial dynamics described in the regional planning documents.

The 2022 revision of this scenario (“adjusted TERRITORIES”) is marginal and aims to reflect the evolution of sectoral contexts:

* gas consumption for mobility has been revised downwards following European announcements on the end of the light thermal vehicle in 2035: LNG consumption is now only concentrated on heavy mobility, including maritime mobility;

* the volume of gas allocated to electricity generation has been adjusted to coincide with the TEN forecast (intermediate vision between the different Energy Future 2050 scenarios).

This “adjusted TERRITORIES” scenario therefore remains a coherent scenario with a national vision based on the complementarity of energies and solutions.

Gas consumption data are presented by sector: building, industry (excluding power generation and cogeneration), centralised power generation and cogeneration (named “PEC + cogé”) and gas mobility. For all sectors, the years 2021 and following are simulated; the values provided for 2020 correspond to the history of climate-adjusted consumptions. The evolution of the building sectors (tertiary and residential) has been simulated year by year; for the other sectors, the years 2030 and 2050 were simulated and then supplemented by interpolation for the intermediate years.