Conservation under uncertainty: optimal network protection strategies for worst-case disturbance events

1. Conservation goals are ideally set after a thorough understanding of potential threats; however, predicting future spatial patterns of threats, such as disturbance, remains challenging. Here, we develop a novel extension of network fortification-interdiction models (NFIM) that deals with uncertainty in future spatial patterns of disturbance by optimally selecting sites that will best mitigate a worst-case scenario for a given magnitude of disturbance. 2. This approach uses information on between-patch movement probabilities and patch-specific survival, which can be estimated from mark-recapture data, to optimize life expectancy. Optimization occurs in three interrelated stages: protection, followed by disturbance, and then assessment. 3. We applied the modeling approach to two mark-recapture data sets: Roseate terns Sterna dougallii in the northeastern United States and the Everglade snail kite Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus in Florida. We contrasted the results to a more conventiona...