Covid-19 midterm projection for construction worker release on April 20th with testing and 50% efficient backtracing

This file describes midterm projections for Luxembourg predicting the number of assumed positive Covid-19 cases, ICU demands and deaths cases for a scenario of a release of 63k workers on April 20th with initial testing or 50% effective backtracking. The projections are obtained by a stochastic agent based epidemiological model and gives for each average value also a 90% confidence interval. Simulations consider data until beginning of April and include asymptomatic cases that are not reflected in the number of positive tested individuals.

本文件详述了针对卢森堡在4月20日释放63,000名工人，且初始检测或实施50%有效追踪回溯的情景下，预测假设的阳性Covid-19病例数、重症监护病房需求量及死亡病例数的中期预测。预测结果是通过基于随机智能体的流行病学模型获得，并为每个平均值提供了90%置信区间。模拟数据考虑了截至4月初的数据，并包括了无症状病例，这些病例未反映在阳性检测人数中。