How does increasing mast seeding frequency affect population dynamics of seed consumers? Wild boar as a case study

Mast seeding in temperate oak populations shapes the dynamics of seed
consumers and numerous communities. Mast seeding responds positively to
warm spring temperatures and is therefore expected to increase under
global warming. We investigated the potential effects of changes in oak
mast seeding on wild boar population dynamics, a widespread and abundant
consumer species. Using long-term monitoring data, we showed that abundant
acorn production enhances the proportion of breeding females. With a body
mass-structured population model and a fixed hunting rate of 0.424, we
showed that high acorn production over time would lead to an average wild
boar population growth rate of 1.197 whereas non-acorn production would
lead to a stable population. Finally, using climate projections and a
mechanistic model linking weather data to oak reproduction, we predicted
that mast seeding frequency might increase over the next century, which
would lead to increase in both wild boar population size and the magnitude
of its temporal variation. Our study provides rare evidence that some
species could greatly benefit from global warming thanks to higher food
availability and therefore highlights the importance of investigating the
cascading effects of changing weather conditions on the dynamics of wild
animal populations to reliably assess the effects of climate change.