Data from: The ecology of wildlife disease surveillance: demographic and prevalence fluctuations undermine surveillance

Wildlife disease surveillance is the first line of defence against
infectious disease. Fluctuations in host populations and disease
prevalence are a known feature of wildlife disease systems. However, the
impact of such heterogeneities on the performance of surveillance is
currently poorly understood. We present the first systematic exploration
of the effects of fluctuations' prevalence and host population size
on the efficacy of wildlife disease surveillance systems. In this study,
efficacy is measured in terms of ability to estimate long-term prevalence
and detect disease risk. Our results suggest that for many wildlife
disease systems, fluctuations in population size and disease lead to bias
in surveillance-based estimates of prevalence and overconfidence in
assessments of both the precision of prevalence estimates and the power to
detect disease. Neglecting such ecological effects may lead to poorly
designed surveillance and ultimately to incorrect assessments of the risks
posed by disease in wildlife. This will be most problematic in systems
where prevalence fluctuations are large and disease fade-outs occur. Such
fluctuations are determined by the interaction of demography and disease
dynamics. Although particularly likely in highly fluctuating populations
typical of fecund short-lived hosts, such fluctuations cannot be ruled out
in more stable populations of longer-lived hosts. Synthesis and
applications. Fluctuations in population size and disease prevalence
should be considered in the design and implementation of wildlife disease
surveillance, and the framework presented here provides a template for
conducting suitable power calculations. Ultimately, understanding the
impact of fluctuations in demographic and epidemiological processes will
enable improvements to wildlife disease surveillance systems leading to
better characterization of, and protection against endemic, emerging and
re-emerging disease threats.