The Epistemology of Maintenance: Reconceptualizing Progress Through the Sustainability of the Existing

This conceptual paper establishes the epistemology of maintenance as a rigorous, independent philosophical and scientific framework. It fundamentally challenges the prevailing innovation-centric paradigm in technological and societal progress. By integrating principles from reliability engineering, engineering economics, infrastructural sustainability, and the critical role of human factors in knowledge production, we redefine progress as the sustained optimization, preservation, and resilient enhancement of existing systems rather than relentless novelty.To substantiate this paradigm shift, we present fully derived mathematical models, including exponential degradation functions, Weibull-based reliability distributions calibrated via fitting to empirical data from the National Bridge Inventory (NBI), net present value (NPV) optimization for maintenance policies incorporating correlated risks using Copulas, advanced Bayesian uncertainty quantification with hierarchical modeling and MCMC, and a detailed life-cycle assessment (LCA)-based carbon footprint model. These models are calibrated with empirical data from the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) 2025 Infrastructure Report Card and NBI.Reproducible Python simulations, enhanced with Monte Carlo methods (10,000 iterations), bootstrapping for confidence intervals, sensitivity analyses including comprehensive Global Sensitivity Analysis via Sobol indices (first-order and total-order), advanced Bayesian updating with MCMC, and comprehensive descriptive statistics, empirically demonstrate the multidimensional superiority of maintenance-oriented policies over innovation-driven alternatives.A comprehensive comparative analysis, including quantitative comparisons with alternative models such as Markov chains and Gompertz degradation, coupled with an in-depth exploration of tacit knowledge and global applications with quantitative case studies (e.g., NPV analysis for Haramain High-Speed Rail), elevates this framework. It offers profound implications for global sustainability, equity, and policy-making in an era of resource constraints and climate urgency.Keywords: Epistemology of maintenance, reliability engineering, tacit knowledge, sustainability, infrastructure, Bayesian updating, Weibull distribution, Gamma process, Copulas, Sobol indices, life-cycle assessment.