Data from: Southern range dynamics of Canada lynx over seven decades

The range of the Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) has contracted
substantially from its historical range. Using harvest records, we found
that the southern range of the lynx in Ontario in the late 1940s collapsed
and then, in a short period of time, increased to its largest extent in
the mid-1960s when the lynx range spread south of the boreal forest for a
decade. After this expansion the southern range contracted northwards
beginning in the 1970s. Most recently, there has been a slight expansion
between 2010-2017. We have attributed these dynamics on the southern range
periphery to the fluctuation of the boreal lynx population in the core of
the species’ range. In addition, connectivity to boreal lynx populations
and snow depth seemed to condition whether the lynx expanded into an area.
However, we did not find any evidence to suggest that these changes were
due to anthropogenic disturbances or competition. The boreal lynx
population does not reach the peak abundance it once did, without which we
would not expect to see large expansions of the southern lynx range as in
the mid-1960s. Our results suggest that southern lynx range in Ontario
have been driven by the magnitude of the boreal lynx population cycle,
connectivity to the boreal forest, and snow conditions. Therefore, it is
quite unlikely that southern lynx population in the Great Lakes will
recover, since the warming climate and habitat changes are causing a
northward contraction of the boreal forest and likely with it the core
lynx populations.