Vote shares Union-FDP (German Election 2017)

These are vote shares of Union-FDP, calculated based on a pooled survey (at each date pooled sample was calculated based on aggregation of polls from different German pollsters). For each date this data set provides a subset of 500 simulations from a Dirichlet distribution, which is the (Bayesian) Posterior distribution of a Multinomial Likelihood (pooled survey) and a uninformative (flat) Dirichlet-Prior. Each simulation provides a possible election outcome. The vote shares provided here are based on "redistributed votes" (i.e. votes of parties below 5% threshold are redistributed proportionally to parties above the 5% threshold).