Investment behavior in the period of the Weimar Republic: macro economic data.

Björn Alecke’s contribution gives an overview of the empirical studies, dealing with the issue of investment weakness during the period of Weimar Republic. The methodological approaches of these studies are critical discussed (for example: data problems caused by inadequate sample sizes; the best statistical model: the question of the selection of a regression model most adequate to the data, for example the selection of a dynamic regression model of time series analysis).

In the first part of the study attention is paid to the questions of theoretical foundation and data selection which generally arise when trying to estimate a macroeconomic investment function for the inter-war period.
The questions of empirical modeling are discussed in the second part of the work. In this context in particular the problems addressed, that arise with the use of time series in a regression analysis for such a short period of time as the inter-war period.

The fact, that the data used by previous research, are yearly data series, intensifies the difficulties of statistical estimation. Caused by the short time period a sample of at most 14 values will result. Therefore, a reliable estimation is hardly feasible. A solution of this dilemma may be the search of suitable proxy variables for private investment. For this purpose, the following existing indices on a monthly basis can be cited here. First, the index of capital goods production and the domestic machinery orders are of interest. Further data on monthly basis are the official statistics on interest rate development, wages- and prices development

Downloadable Data tables in HISTAT (Topic: Growth, Economy, and Crisis (= Wachstum, Konjunktur und Krisen) ):

A. Ausgewählte Daten aus der Forschungsliteratur:
A.01 Nettosozialprodukt zu Marktpreisen und seine Verwendungskomponenten, Index 1910-1913 =100 (1925-1930)
A.02 Zahlenangaben zu den Nettoinvestitionen und dem Kapitalstock nach W. G. Hoffmann (1925-1934)
A.03 Lohn- und Preisentwicklung, Monatsdaten nach G. Bry (1924-1934)

B. Daten aus dem Konjunkturstatistischen Handbuch 1936 (Hrsg. Ernst Wagemann):
B.01 Produktion von Investitionsgütern und Maschinenbestellungen, Monatsdaten (1924-1934)
B.02 Die Investitionen in der deutschen Volkswirtschaft, in Mill. Reichsmark (1924-1934)
B.03 Aktienindex, Rendite der Goldpfandbriefe und Privatdiskont, Monatsdaten (1925-1934)
B.04 Einkommen aus Lohn und Gehalt in Mill. Reichsmark, Quartalsdaten (1925-1934)