Effects of future climate change on the forests of Madagascar

Global climate change is continuing to occur at an alarming rate. In addition to increases in global weather extremes, melting of polar ice caps and subsequent sea level-rises, climate change is known to directly impact the life-cycles and ecologies of many animals and plants. Whilst climate change is projected to result in substantial geographic range and habitat contractions for many species in the future, the effects of climate change on many habitats of conservation-concern remain poorly understood. In this study, we investigated how future climate change is projected to impact the occurrence and distribution of four major forest types of Madagascar, a global biodiversity hotspot and conservation priority, over the next 60 years. We also compared how climate change effects vary among the four forest types under a “mitigation” climate forecast, and under a “business-as-usual” trajectory. As expected, our models suggest that future climate change will affect the distribution of the fo...