Towards Dependence of Tropical Cyclone Intensity on Sea Surface Temperature and Its Response in a Warming World Climate

Tropical Cyclone (TC) systems affect global ocean heat transport due to mixing of the upper ocean and impact climate dynamics. A higher Sea Surface Temperature (SST), other influencing factors remaining supportive, fuels TC genesis and intensification. The atmospheric thermodynamic profile, especially the sea-air temperature contrast (SAT), also contributes due to heat transfer and affects TC’s maximum surface wind speed (Vmax) explained by enthalpy exchange processes. Studies have shown that SST can approximately be used as a proxy for SAT. As a part of an ongoing effort in this work, we simplistically explored the connection between SST and Vmax from a climatological perspective. Subsequently, estimated Vmax is applied to compute Power Dissipation Index (an upper limit on TC’s destructive potential). The model is developed using long-term observational SST reconstructions employed on three independent SST datasets and validated against an established model. This simple approach excluded physical parameters, such as mixing ratio and atmospheric profile, however, renders it generally suitable to compute potential intensity associated with TCs spatially and weakly temporally and performs well for stronger storms. A futuristic prediction by the HadCM3 climate model under doubled CO2 indicates stronger storm surface wind speeds and rising SST, especially in the Northern Hemisphere.