The evolution of local schooling systems at the secondary level in Brazil between 1991 and 2010

Abstract In spite of the negative overall representation of Brazilian secondary schools, the educational system at this level has shown remarkable quantitative developments. This paper proposes evolutionary paths of development of local secondary educational systems and addresses their determinants. It uses four schooling indicators - age specific enrollment ratio, gross enrollment ratio, net enrollment ratio, and age-grade distortion - conjointly with the use of cluster analysis to determine development trajectories. Furthermore, it analyses the main determinants of the evolutionary paths with the use of logistic and multinomial logistic models. Regional aspects related to socioeconomic level, labor market returns to human capital, demographics, social stability, location and microenvironment were associated with educational evolution.