Development Status Evaluation and Key Development Factor Judgment of Traditional Opera Intangible Cultural Heritage in Anhui Province, China

Evaluations of traditional opera intangible cultural heritage (ICH) often rely on qualitative or one-sided assessments, offering limited guidance for future development priorities. We establish (i) a development status evaluation system comprising 12 factors across external influence, internal driving force, and government support, and (ii) a key development factor judgment method that jointly considers factor-status correlations, inter-factor correlations, and each factor's improvement potential. Using a comprehensive index method with analytically determined weights and a five-tier endangerment grading, we assess 15 Anhui traditional operas. Huangmei Opera and Lu Opera exhibit the strongest development status (least concern and near threatened, respectively), whereas Huizhou Mulian Opera and Haizi Opera are critically endangered. The remaining 11 operas range from vulnerable to endangered. The analysis identifies increasing the proportion of young audiences as the top development priority, followed by expanding the number of troupes, increasing the share of young practitioners, improving audience size, and sustaining new opera creation. Self-financing rate, inheritance status, and financial support are general development factors at the current stage. These results provide an actionable, data-driven foundation for regional policy design, industry collaboration, and targeted interventions to support the sustainable development of traditional opera ICH in Anhui.