Ethical Decision‑Making in an Uncertain World: From Scenario Analysis to an Ontology of the Instability of Action

Abstract In an era where rapid transformations, deep ambiguities, and systemic complexity have drastically reduced the predictability of the future, traditional decision‑making models based on fixed ethical rules or probabilistic estimates have lost much of their effectiveness. The present article accepts the original framework of “Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty” (DMDU) and the concept of “responsible pause,” but takes a further step, elevating this model from a methodological tool to an ontological‑ethical theory. In this developed version, uncertainty is no longer regarded as an external feature of the world; rather, it is rooted in the instability of the subject’s own structure, the process of cognition, and the nature of action. We argue that ethical decision‑making is in fact the conscious management of the “gap between layers of action” and movement within the “field of existential instability.” By adding the concepts of “the leakage of reality,” “dynamic masks of decision,” and “the multi‑layeredness of the subject,” the proposed framework is able to retain the analysis of multiple scenarios while ascending to the level of observing the invisible structures that shape choices. The result is an integrated model in which ethics, cognition, and being are organized within a single continuum of instability, and the human agent is understood not as “a decision‑maker in the world” but as “a temporary point of decision within the instability of existence.” Keywords: ethical decision‑making, ontological instability, scenario analysis, responsible pause, leakage of reality, dynamic mask, multi‑layeredness of the subject, DMDU