Compound and Concurrent Climate Extremes: Detection, Modeling and Risk Analysis

Hydrologic Extremes and Society
Chair: Hilary McMillan (San Diego State University)
This session focuses on observations, prediction, communication and adaptation to hydrologic extremes. By bringing together ideas from flood and drought research, we analyze similarities and differences in societal impacts and interactions with these two extremes. We explore how providing observations and information about hydrologic extremes can change the way societies understand and react to crisis events.

"Compound and Concurrent Climate Extremes: Detection, Modeling and Risk Analysis"
Speaker: Amir AghaKouchak (University of California Irvine)

Human activities in the past century have caused an increase in global temperature. Ground-based observations show a substantial increase in extreme rainfall events, hot spells and heatwaves. A combination of climate events (e.g., low precipitation and high temperatures) may cause a significant impact on the ecosystem and society, although individual events involved may not be severe extremes themselves – a notion known as compound event/extremes. Numerous studies have focused on how different types of extremes have changed or might change in the future. However, only few studies have addressed changes in compound and concurrent events. This presentation focuses on three different types of concurrent and compound extremes including droughtheatwaves, sea level rise-terrestrial flooding, and meteorological-anthropogenic drought. We present different methodological frameworks for detecting, modeling and risk assessment of concurrent and compound extremes using ground based and remote sensing observations.

水文极端事件与社会

主席：希尔丽·麦克米伦（圣地亚哥州立大学）
本研讨会聚焦于水文极端事件的观测、预测、沟通及适应策略。通过汇聚洪水与干旱研究领域的理念，我们分析了社会在面对这两种极端事件时的相似与差异，并探讨提供水文极端事件观测和信息如何改变社会对危机事件的认知与反应方式。

“复合及并发气候极端事件：检测、建模与风险评估”
演讲者：阿米尔·阿伽库什克（加利福尼亚大学欧文分校）
过去一个世纪的人类活动导致了全球温度的上升。地面观测显示极端降雨事件、热浪和高温事件的显著增加。气候事件的组合（例如，降水量低与高温）可能对生态系统和社会产生重大影响，尽管单个事件本身可能并非极端——这一概念被称为复合事件/极端。众多研究集中于不同类型的极端事件如何变化或在未来的变化趋势。然而，仅有少数研究关注复合及并发事件的变化。本次演讲聚焦于三种不同类型的并发和复合极端事件，包括干旱热浪、海平面上升-陆地洪水以及气象-人为干旱。我们提出了利用地面观测和遥感观测来检测、建模并发和复合极端事件的风险评估的不同方法论框架。