Igniting Insight: Evaluating NWS Red Flag Warnings within a Fire Partner Decision-Making Context Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

This study examines how fire professionals use National Weather Service (NWS) fire weather products, with a focus on red flag warnings (RFWs). Based on 19 focus groups with 85 participants across all six NWS regions, we identify decision timelines of fire management and the fire decision support services used such as NWS products at various lead times before forecasted critical fire weather. We find that RFWs are widely used and consistently valued, but they play a supportive rather than an initiating role in operational decision-making. Participants described using RFWs to confirm existing strategies, enhance situational awareness—particularly for less experienced personnel—and lend credibility to public messaging and resource justifications. While RFWs are not typically the first signal of overall wildfire risk, they remain a trusted and essential component of a broader decision-making framework. Participants identified opportunities to improve RFWs by better incorporating fuel data, increasing cross-office consistency, and adding trend information. Rather than calling for major changes, these findings suggest that targeted refinements could improve the utility of an already valued and frequently used product within an evolving and information-rich fire management environment.